We laid out all the reasons why the structural factors that have kept long-term interest rates low and risk premia suppressed are fading in our September 23rd beast of a post, The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0. You know what we think about the Treasury market. July 2011 was also just before or in anticipation of “ Operation Twist,” the Fed’s program to manipulate longer-term rates lower. bond market crossed the Rubicon with the 10-year yield breaching major resistance at, let’s call it, 3.12 percent, a high that hasn’t been seen since July 2011, ironically the month named in honor of Julius Caesar. As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.” Historians translate this as “the die is cast,” the decision is made, there is no going back.
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